The report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which just hit the news, comes to depressing conclusions. Here they are:

• The evidence for human-induced climate change is “unequivocal.” (Yes, we did it – but some did more than others, methinks).
• The rise in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere thus far will result in an average rise in sea levels of up to 4.6 feet, or 1.4 meters. (Say goodbye to New Orleans, while you can. You may also want to say goodbye to the Maldives, Tuvalu, and a few other sea side resorts).
• Climate everywhere has become unpredictable with droughts more common. Water supply and food supply will become an issue, especially in most of the “developing” world. (Is it still developing?)
• Antarctic ice sheets appear to be breaking up. In particular, the massive west Antarctic ice sheet, previously assumed stable, is starting to collapse.
• The Amazon rain forest – the only big carbon sink the world has got – is gradually being destroyed.

The problem with the report is that it was 5 years in the making and thus parts are a little out of date. The IPCC report never accounted for the vast expansion of a coal-based energy generation in India and China. It’s didn’t factor in this summer’s data – like, for example, that the North Pole is likely to be clear water in summer within 6 years. (Santa Claus had better find a new residence). Also, all the new information appears to be worse than expected.

The IPCC chairman, Rajendra Pachauri, said “What we do in the next two to three years will determine our future. This is the defining moment.”

To be honest, I think the defining moment passed a long time ago and nobody noticed.

Here’s the defining point:

The rate at which carbon dioxide is currently rising in the atmosphere is 2 parts per million (ppm) per year.

In the last 400,000 years, it never rose above 300 ppm. By 2005 it had risen to 375 ppm and right now nobody expects it to stop before it gets to 500 ppm. That’s the major driver and it’s already driven the temperature up to the point where all the ice everywhere is gradually melting.  Right now nobody knows how fast the ice will melt or how much of it will melt. And right now we cannot even stop the rate at which the carbon dioxide level is rising, never mind bring it back down to less disastrous levels.

The “average rise in sea levels of up to 4.6 feet, or 1.4 meters” is last year’s guess backed up by incomplete models. We have incomplete models because the planetary situation that we are trying to model has no precedent in the last 400,000 years.

As regards sea-level rise, we will know more with each passing year, but right now we have no idea of how fast it will occur or at what point it will stop. Neither do we know whether or when the west Antarctic ice sheet will drop into the sea. If it does the sea will rise somewhere between 12ft and 20ft. In which case, you can say goodbye to New York, London, Hong Kong and a whole load of other important economic centers that just happen to be a little bit too coastal for their own good.

What must we do to be saved? Nobody knows right now. (I’ll get back to you).

If you’re looking for a resource that shows you your height above sea level, try: EarthTools
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