Comments on: Apple: Turning The Industry http://www.thevirtualcircle.com/2008/08/apple-turning-the-industry/ WordPress site Wed, 16 Nov 2011 20:21:06 +0000 hourly 1 By: Lasst die Korken knallen: Trendpiraten.tv offiziell „on air“ | Trendpiraten Blog http://www.thevirtualcircle.com/2008/08/apple-turning-the-industry/comment-page-1/#comment-370 Lasst die Korken knallen: Trendpiraten.tv offiziell „on air“ | Trendpiraten Blog Fri, 05 Dec 2008 10:13:51 +0000 http://havemacwillblog.com/?p=1746#comment-370 [...] Warum Apple bald die Weltherrschaft übernimmt. Naja, fast. [ http://havemacwillblog.com/2008/08/21/apple-turning-the-industry ] [...] [...] Warum Apple bald die Weltherrschaft übernimmt. Naja, fast. [ http://havemacwillblog.com/2008/08/21/apple-turning-the-industry ] [...]

]]> By: » give us this day our daily kool-aid i drank the kool-aid: clutching my dixie cup of apple goodness http://www.thevirtualcircle.com/2008/08/apple-turning-the-industry/comment-page-1/#comment-364 » give us this day our daily kool-aid i drank the kool-aid: clutching my dixie cup of apple goodness Mon, 10 Nov 2008 16:57:05 +0000 http://havemacwillblog.com/?p=1746#comment-364 [...] Critical mass has been reached: There is a generational change coming in consumer and corporate computing and Apple is the company that will introduce it. Technologically, the changes are happening now, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see the next models of the Apple range exploiting more advanced chips than the current set of Intel multicore chips, although it isn’t even certain which direction Apple will take and who its chip partner(s) will be. [...] [...] Critical mass has been reached: There is a generational change coming in consumer and corporate computing and Apple is the company that will introduce it. Technologically, the changes are happening now, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see the next models of the Apple range exploiting more advanced chips than the current set of Intel multicore chips, although it isn’t even certain which direction Apple will take and who its chip partner(s) will be. [...]

]]> By: Dale Vile http://www.thevirtualcircle.com/2008/08/apple-turning-the-industry/comment-page-1/#comment-369 Dale Vile Sat, 23 Aug 2008 07:33:46 +0000 http://havemacwillblog.com/?p=1746#comment-369 I guess the thought of Apple ending up ruling the IT, media and telecoms markets scares the hell out of me, and with a lot of direct experience of Apple technology myself now, I have come to realise that the differentiators are actually not as great as the advocates make out, and that there are at least as many downsides associated with falling in behind Jobs. This is why I am pushing back a little here - just trying to keep things grounded. Anyway, I look forward to the next of our wine bar debates - nothing like the flow of alcohol to fuel a creative discussion :-) With mucho respect and best regards, Dale I guess the thought of Apple ending up ruling the IT, media and telecoms markets scares the hell out of me, and with a lot of direct experience of Apple technology myself now, I have come to realise that the differentiators are actually not as great as the advocates make out, and that there are at least as many downsides associated with falling in behind Jobs. This is why I am pushing back a little here – just trying to keep things grounded.

Anyway, I look forward to the next of our wine bar debates – nothing like the flow of alcohol to fuel a creative discussion :-)

With mucho respect and best regards,
Dale

]]> By: Admin http://www.thevirtualcircle.com/2008/08/apple-turning-the-industry/comment-page-1/#comment-368 Admin Fri, 22 Aug 2008 23:20:39 +0000 http://havemacwillblog.com/?p=1746#comment-368 There's so much in this comment to discuss (and much of it is moot) that I'm tempted to take it offline - which I'm sure we'll do over time. As regards first mover/second mover this is very much contextual. The competitors of Amazon and eBay never had a prayer. And both IBM and Microsoft happily crushed healthy opposition from a second mover position. Oracle with first mover advantage in the database market was (surprisingly) never caught - but it very nearly went broke at one point, so it very nearly blew out. Now it's giving SAP serious grief from with a second mover strategy. I could go deeper into this. Apple is fundamentally a first mover and a good number of its first moves have failed. It has had a great run recently. However as regards market share, Bloor's Law (if I have one) is that market momentum beats market share. You may remember that at one point in time the motorcar had less than 1 percent of the transport market and the horse industry was galloping along quite nicely. The question I prefer ask is what are the industry influencers buying? They're buying Macs. My inclination is to expect Apple to proceed at quite a pace for a few years, after which it is hard to predict because there are other disruptive forces in play. How long before Apple becomes a games company too? Not long I think. There’s so much in this comment to discuss (and much of it is moot) that I’m tempted to take it offline – which I’m sure we’ll do over time.
As regards first mover/second mover this is very much contextual. The competitors of Amazon and eBay never had a prayer. And both IBM and Microsoft happily crushed healthy opposition from a second mover position. Oracle with first mover advantage in the database market was (surprisingly) never caught – but it very nearly went broke at one point, so it very nearly blew out. Now it’s giving SAP serious grief from with a second mover strategy.
I could go deeper into this. Apple is fundamentally a first mover and a good number of its first moves have failed. It has had a great run recently.
However as regards market share, Bloor’s Law (if I have one) is that market momentum beats market share. You may remember that at one point in time the motorcar had less than 1 percent of the transport market and the horse industry was galloping along quite nicely.
The question I prefer ask is what are the industry influencers buying? They’re buying Macs.
My inclination is to expect Apple to proceed at quite a pace for a few years, after which it is hard to predict because there are other disruptive forces in play.
How long before Apple becomes a games company too? Not long I think.

]]> By: Dale Vile http://www.thevirtualcircle.com/2008/08/apple-turning-the-industry/comment-page-1/#comment-367 Dale Vile Fri, 22 Aug 2008 22:16:29 +0000 http://havemacwillblog.com/?p=1746#comment-367 All good points. Regarding content availability, though, the consumer point of reference at the moment is the software/media they access via their PC, the channels they get to through satellite/cable, and the games they can buy for their Sony, Nintendo or Microsoft gaming console/handhed entertainment device, etc. Choice is out there as a result of vibrant ecosystems working across multiple markeplaces. Against this background, the reality is that Apple makes makes it VERY easy to access a limited range of stuff, but any investment in apple equipment or services immediately restricts the consumer's choice, and quite severely at that. Windows PC users have massively more choice than Mac users, users of virtually any other mobile device have massively more choice than iPhone users, and with most of my music now encoded via iTunes, I have massively less choice in the hardware and software I can conveniently use to play my music. I can't think of any other way of enabling choice than to be more open, respectful and ecosystem-oriented. This is why I say Apple's behaviour has to change for it to move to the next level. I would also be careful not to over-state Apple's position. The mobile industry is very fad driven, and when the exclusive deals Apple has benefited from play out and the playing field is levelled between carriers, they will be very wary of letting Apple gain too much power. They have been bitten before with Nokia in the consumer space and RIM in the business sector, and with their control of the channel and collectively a lot to spend on marketing, there could be some interesting battles ahead. And in the PC market, which is defined by mid-range and lower-end machines, Apple is still a very small player. The higher end that it resportedly owns 50% of now in terms of new shipments really is quite a small niche. Don't get me wrong, I am certainly not dismissing Apple and while I detest the way it behaves, I still have a lot of respect for the way it has innovatively solved problems that have in some cases been hanging about for years. That said, we need to keep things in proportion and not under-estimate Apples's competition. The one thing you and I have differed on consistently over the years is that I firmly believe in second mover rather than first mover advantage, particularly when the second movers are established incuments in other areas. However it pans out, though, I think the shaking up that Apple is giving three separate industries at the moment (media, telco and IT) is fantastic, and will catalyse the advancement of both technology and business models across the board. All good points.

Regarding content availability, though, the consumer point of reference at the moment is the software/media they access via their PC, the channels they get to through satellite/cable, and the games they can buy for their Sony, Nintendo or Microsoft gaming console/handhed entertainment device, etc. Choice is out there as a result of vibrant ecosystems working across multiple markeplaces.

Against this background, the reality is that Apple makes makes it VERY easy to access a limited range of stuff, but any investment in apple equipment or services immediately restricts the consumer’s choice, and quite severely at that. Windows PC users have massively more choice than Mac users, users of virtually any other mobile device have massively more choice than iPhone users, and with most of my music now encoded via iTunes, I have massively less choice in the hardware and software I can conveniently use to play my music.

I can’t think of any other way of enabling choice than to be more open, respectful and ecosystem-oriented. This is why I say Apple’s behaviour has to change for it to move to the next level.

I would also be careful not to over-state Apple’s position. The mobile industry is very fad driven, and when the exclusive deals Apple has benefited from play out and the playing field is levelled between carriers, they will be very wary of letting Apple gain too much power. They have been bitten before with Nokia in the consumer space and RIM in the business sector, and with their control of the channel and collectively a lot to spend on marketing, there could be some interesting battles ahead.

And in the PC market, which is defined by mid-range and lower-end machines, Apple is still a very small player. The higher end that it resportedly owns 50% of now in terms of new shipments really is quite a small niche.

Don’t get me wrong, I am certainly not dismissing Apple and while I detest the way it behaves, I still have a lot of respect for the way it has innovatively solved problems that have in some cases been hanging about for years. That said, we need to keep things in proportion and not under-estimate Apples’s competition. The one thing you and I have differed on consistently over the years is that I firmly believe in second mover rather than first mover advantage, particularly when the second movers are established incuments in other areas.

However it pans out, though, I think the shaking up that Apple is giving three separate industries at the moment (media, telco and IT) is fantastic, and will catalyse the advancement of both technology and business models across the board.

]]> By: Robin Bloor http://www.thevirtualcircle.com/2008/08/apple-turning-the-industry/comment-page-1/#comment-366 Robin Bloor Fri, 22 Aug 2008 19:37:58 +0000 http://havemacwillblog.com/?p=1746#comment-366 I agree in the main. But there is a significant difference with Apple that may affect the situation. First of all, Apple is at the beginning of the curve. I think of it being like Microsoft at the point that it defeated OS/2 - which is the early 1990s. Technology quality and innovation may be more in Apple's favor, but the arrogance that alienates customers is clearly in evidence already. But here are the distinctions: a) Apple is a consumer products company. Neither Microsoft nor IBM ever were. From that perspective Google makes a better analog to Microsoft than Apple. b) Apple is a retail company, which means it has to talk to the customer. This may work in its favor (but no guarantees) c) Consumers don't mind being locked in anything like as much as technologist like you and me do. We're trying to do business computing and the vendor is getting in our way, hobbling us rather than enabling us. The consumer watches videos and plays music and surfs and does email, mainly. They don't consider themselves locked-in any more than the TV watchers in the UK considered themselves locked in when there were only 2 channels BBC and ITV. d) Web capabilities (Google and Zoho, etc.) combined with Linux may help to keep Apple honest. Microsoft had no real competition, but OS X is Free BSD and works much like Linux under the covers. The microkernel is an advantage for Apple, but only when the computer gets busy. I expect the hardware vendors to wake up and use Linux to compete with Apple. That may keep Apple honest. If Apple doesn't find a competitor at some point there will be a really big problem. Here's what Gorbachev said to Reagan: "I have a secret weapon; I will deprive you of an enemy." We've spent the last 8 years watching the US flounder for the lack of a real enemy. It's caused huge damage. I agree in the main. But there is a significant difference with Apple that may affect the situation. First of all, Apple is at the beginning of the curve. I think of it being like Microsoft at the point that it defeated OS/2 – which is the early 1990s. Technology quality and innovation may be more in Apple’s favor, but the arrogance that alienates customers is clearly in evidence already.
But here are the distinctions:
a) Apple is a consumer products company. Neither Microsoft nor IBM ever were. From that perspective Google makes a better analog to Microsoft than Apple.
b) Apple is a retail company, which means it has to talk to the customer. This may work in its favor (but no guarantees)
c) Consumers don’t mind being locked in anything like as much as technologist like you and me do. We’re trying to do business computing and the vendor is getting in our way, hobbling us rather than enabling us.
The consumer watches videos and plays music and surfs and does email, mainly. They don’t consider themselves locked-in any more than the TV watchers in the UK considered themselves locked in when there were only 2 channels BBC and ITV.
d) Web capabilities (Google and Zoho, etc.) combined with Linux may help to keep Apple honest. Microsoft had no real competition, but OS X is Free BSD and works much like Linux under the covers. The microkernel is an advantage for Apple, but only when the computer gets busy. I expect the hardware vendors to wake up and use Linux to compete with Apple. That may keep Apple honest. If Apple doesn’t find a competitor at some point there will be a really big problem.
Here’s what Gorbachev said to Reagan: “I have a secret weapon; I will deprive you of an enemy.”
We’ve spent the last 8 years watching the US flounder for the lack of a real enemy. It’s caused huge damage.

]]> By: Dale Vile http://www.thevirtualcircle.com/2008/08/apple-turning-the-industry/comment-page-1/#comment-365 Dale Vile Fri, 22 Aug 2008 19:14:28 +0000 http://havemacwillblog.com/?p=1746#comment-365 Hi Robin. You have always told me to look for the analogue. I would be interested in which one applies here. Your post is largely about technology innovation. From where I am sitting, there is another issue that has yet to shake out. Apple at the moment is one of the most prominent examples of walled garden thinking we have seen for a long time. History tells us that this approach is great for getting markets going, but there comes a point when the walled garden starts to look a bit like a prison. I am picking up such a sentiment emerging already in association with Apple. Most of the loyal fan base is to busy looking at the pretty flowers in the garden at the moment to even think of peeking over the wall, but some have started to suss the situation they are in. More will do so over time, and if Apple's business practices don't change to open up the garden then even mainstream users will get restless. Just as people outgrew the walled gardens of Compuserve, AOL and mobile operators, my feeling is that they will outgrow the nanny/jailer like behaviour of Apple. My own feeling is therefore that Apple needs to make a turn itself at some point and truly surround itself with an open win/win/win ecosystem that benefits partners and users as well as itself. There is evidence of it moving in this direction, and I hope this continues. Meanwhile, as a recent Apple adopter myself (iPod, then Mac, then iPhone), I am already feeling very constrained by the company. The initial attraction of the innovation and simplicity eventually wears off when you find you cannot do something that is important to you - often because of Apple's greediness, so the sooner we see a change in approach, the better. Hi Robin. You have always told me to look for the analogue. I would be interested in which one applies here. Your post is largely about technology innovation. From where I am sitting, there is another issue that has yet to shake out. Apple at the moment is one of the most prominent examples of walled garden thinking we have seen for a long time. History tells us that this approach is great for getting markets going, but there comes a point when the walled garden starts to look a bit like a prison. I am picking up such a sentiment emerging already in association with Apple. Most of the loyal fan base is to busy looking at the pretty flowers in the garden at the moment to even think of peeking over the wall, but some have started to suss the situation they are in. More will do so over time, and if Apple’s business practices don’t change to open up the garden then even mainstream users will get restless.

Just as people outgrew the walled gardens of Compuserve, AOL and mobile operators, my feeling is that they will outgrow the nanny/jailer like behaviour of Apple. My own feeling is therefore that Apple needs to make a turn itself at some point and truly surround itself with an open win/win/win ecosystem that benefits partners and users as well as itself. There is evidence of it moving in this direction, and I hope this continues.

Meanwhile, as a recent Apple adopter myself (iPod, then Mac, then iPhone), I am already feeling very constrained by the company. The initial attraction of the innovation and simplicity eventually wears off when you find you cannot do something that is important to you – often because of Apple’s greediness, so the sooner we see a change in approach, the better.

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