Why The Apple Rumor Factory Is Working Overtime
Estimates suggest that if Steve Jobs died or was so ill as to have to retire from Apple, then Apple’s stock price could fall by as much as a 25%. The stock was cut in half by the stock market crash anyway and the price has been falling anyway since the announcement that Steve Jobs will not be addressing Macworld and that the coming Macworld in January will be the last that Apple officially supports.
The announcement jolted the rumor mills into action, because it doesn’t sound like sensible policy – unless Steve Jobs is seriously ill and unlikely to recover. The annual Steve Jobs address constituted free and immensely valuable world-wide publicity for the next Apple device. It could get a piece of the TV News in many countries. But set that aside, we’ll know the facts when the facts are on parade, and in the mean time Steve Jobs has earned his privacy.
Macworld itself is, by its very nature, a reason for rumors. If there are new devices to announce they get announced at Macworld. So here’s a summary of the possible new Apple products from the Apple rumor industry (I’ve excluded iMac refreshes as those are pretty much a certainty):
- A smaller form factor iPhone (iPhone Nano).
- A tablet Mac.
- A Mac Netbook.
- A multimedia hub for the home (or Apple TV upgrade)
None of these would be particularly surprising, but an iPhone Nano might be interesting if it isn’t just a smaller iPhone.
I’d have to disagree with you that Steve Jobs illness is the only reason pulling out of Macworld makes sense. The company has proven – with its Town Hall announcements and other standalone events – that they’re capable of drawing the press to announcements. So they don’t really need Macworld for the publicity. These sorts of events – as I’m sure you appreciate – are hellishly expensive. Even worse, from their perspective, they leave Apple beholden to someone else’s timeline – failure to produce “one more thing” at the event will also lead to a drubbing of the stock price and disappointment by fans.
All that said, I’m not sure what to make of the reports of Job’s near death status. The company denies it – although every company quote I’ve heard seems carefully phrased so as to provide plausible deniability in responding to the inevitable lawsuits. As you note, as always, time will tell. In some ways, the more interesting question is whether the company can rebound and adapt to move from singular leadership to a more collaborative environment.
Best wishes for the new year.
Cost, timelines etc. is a variant of the “official story” for pulling out. I’d find it easier to believe if someone gave me some hard facts on this. My knowledge of the commercial payback from large conferences comes from talking to those that organize them and the usual story is of a dramatic payoff. I find it difficult to believe that Macworld is an exception, especially given the quality of PR that emerges – which simply cannot be achieved by talking to local journalists. But I guess it’s possible.
Best wishes to you too for the new year. It could be a tough one.