They were the best of times, they were the worst of times…

It may be just as well for Google that for the month of January most of us were crowded into the Apple delivery room, timing the contractions.  Otherwise, more people might have noticed the peculiar contemporaneous events surrounding the Android tablet, wherein Google’s main smartphone partner got into and then got out of the Android tablet computer business, just like that.  If this event raised any chortles on Infinite Loop, though, it shouldn’t have.

Last week, we heard gurgling hyperbole from a few journalists about how the iPad would make Apple the Microsoft of portable computing.  But, if Google has its way, Apple may have to settle for being, well, the Apple of the tablet business, respected and richly rewarded for its originality, but, once again, the tail, not the dog.

Tablets and Rumors of Tablets

At the beginning of last month, rumors abounded that HTC would soon bring forth an Android-based iSlate [sic] killer. By the end of the month, we knew that the Apple tablet would be called the iPad and that HTC was killing its Android tablet project.  This is notable news because HTC is not just some random handset maker; it is the mobile device company that has worked more closely with Google than any other.

They built the very first Android-based “Google phone”, the G1/Dream, followed it up with the Hero and several others, and then, most recently, the paradigm-shaking Nexus One.

So, what are we to make of HTC’s rapid retreat from Google’s tablet initiative?

A capitulation to Apple?  A repudiation of Android?

Neither, I think.  HTC said that they had just decided to focus on doing what they do best – build phones – and, considering what Google seems to have planned for the Nexus One, that should keep them plenty busy.

One Against Many

It’s not like HTC was the only company working on an Android tablet, anyway.  Archos has one out already and there are others on the way from MSI, Dell, probably Motorola, and maybe HP.  And, from the lesser-known company, ICD, we will even see a whole family of Android tablet products, the Vega line, in 7″, 11″, and 15″ sizes.  And, if what has happened with the Android phone (see chart) presages the Android tablet, Apple should take no comfort at all from HTC’s retreat.

This chart shows the AdMob data for smartphone OS market share growth in 2009 in the US.  It should surprise nobody that, in the face of dual and dueling juggernauts from Apple and Google, Windows, Blackberry, and Palm phones continued their race to the bottom all year, but notice what happened on the Apple and Android lines.  As soon as Android went from a single handset and single carrier, the G1 on T-Mobile, to several of both in the second half, the iPhone flat-lined and Android took off.

iPhone and Android fans will argue endlessly about features and apps, but, having studied the iPhone 3GS and the Android Hero side by side for four months, in my opinion they are just not that different.   And, even if one could give Android any kind of edge for its multi-tasking, open app market, or anything else, it won’t explain the numbers.  The difference is not in the devices; it is in the business strategies of Apple and Google.  And, if they each follow the same path for tablets as the did for phones, Google will probably win both fights.

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